Where mortgage rates are heading.
The bond market sets fixed pricing and the Bank of Canada sets variable. Both are readable if you know where to look. This page updates on its own, every day.
Bond yields are up 46 bps since June 19.
Lenders have raised 5-year fixed rates by an average of 37 bps so far, 9 bps less than the bond move.
This is what lenders watch to price 5-year fixed mortgages. When it moves, fixed rates usually follow within days to a few weeks.
Prime rate 4.45%, which sits 2.20% above the overnight rate.
Variable rates move with prime, and prime moves when the Bank of Canada changes this.
Average rate on newly funded insured 5-year-plus mortgages across Canada. Not a quote and not an offer, but the closest thing there is to what people were actually charged.
Bank of Canada data through July 2026. Later months are estimated from current lender pricing.
October 28, 2026 · 4 days away
Market pricing for this decision is unavailable right now.
Source: Montréal Exchange CORRA futures. No current reading is available.
What this means for you
If you hold a variable rate
Your rate moves when the Bank of Canada moves, because prime follows the policy rate. Between decisions, nothing changes for you no matter what bond yields do.
If you are shopping a fixed rate
Watch the 5-year bond, not the Bank of Canada. Fixed pricing follows bond yields, which is why a fixed rate can move in a week when the Bank has not met at all. Lenders reprice with a lag, and not always in full.
If you are renewing
Your renewal is priced off the market on the day you renew, not off any single announcement. Start comparing three to four months out. You can switch lenders at the end of a term with no prepayment penalty.
If you are deciding between the two
Fixed buys payment certainty. Variable buys flexibility and a lower penalty if you break early. Neither is automatically right, and a forecast is a poor reason to pick one. Your budget room and how long you will hold the mortgage matter more.
Market direction is one input. What you actually qualify for depends on your file, the property and the lender. If you want your real number, that is a fifteen minute call.
Figures are published yields and policy rates, not an offer or a rate quote. The outlook is a probability read of the bond market, not a guarantee. What you qualify for depends on your file, the property, timing and lender criteria at the time of application.