Where mortgage rates are heading.
The bond market sets fixed pricing and the Bank of Canada sets variable. Both are readable if you know where to look. This page updates on its own, every day.
Government bond rates are creeping higher: up 12 bps over the last 3 weeks, 6 bps in the last 7 days. When bonds move like this, mortgage rates usually drift up too within a few weeks, though banks only pass on a fraction of the bond move in the first 30 days.
This is what lenders watch to price 5-year fixed mortgages. When it moves, fixed rates usually follow within days to a few weeks.
Prime rate 4.45%, which sits 2.20% above the overnight rate.
Variable rates move with prime, and prime moves when the Bank of Canada changes this.
Average rate on newly funded insured 5-year-plus mortgages across Canada. Not a quote and not an offer, but the closest thing there is to what people were actually charged.
Bank of Canada series V122667780. Published monthly with roughly a six week lag, so the most recent point trails today.
October 28, 2026 · 49 days away
Implied by CORRA futures pricing, which is what traders are actually betting on. It is a read of the market, not a prediction of our own.
What this means for you
If you hold a variable rate
Your rate moves when the Bank of Canada moves, because prime follows the policy rate. Between decisions, nothing changes for you no matter what bond yields do. The next scheduled decision is October 28, 2026.
If you are shopping a fixed rate
Watch the 5-year bond, not the Bank of Canada. Fixed pricing follows bond yields, which is why a fixed rate can move in a week when the Bank has not met at all. Lenders reprice with a lag, and not always in full.
If you are renewing
Your renewal is priced off the market on the day you renew, not off any single announcement. Start comparing three to four months out. You can switch lenders at the end of a term with no prepayment penalty.
If you are deciding between the two
Fixed buys payment certainty. Variable buys flexibility and a lower penalty if you break early. Neither is automatically right, and a forecast is a poor reason to pick one. Your budget room and how long you will hold the mortgage matter more.
Market direction is one input. What you actually qualify for depends on your file, the property and the lender. If you want your real number, that is a fifteen minute call.
Figures are published yields and policy rates, not an offer or a rate quote. The outlook is a probability read of the bond market, not a guarantee. What you qualify for depends on your file, the property, timing and lender criteria at the time of application.