The Bank of Canada Held at 2.25% on July 15: What It Means for Your Mortgage

Quick take

• The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 2.25% on July 15, 2026. No change.
• Prime stayed at 4.45%, so variable-rate payments did not move.
• The Bank projects growth of 0.7% in 2026, then 1.8% in both 2027 and 2028, with inflation easing back to around 2% in early 2027.
• The next scheduled announcement is September 2, 2026, with no Monetary Policy Report. The next full report comes October 28.

"The Bank of Canada already met. What actually happened, and does it change anything for me?"

Nothing moved on July 15, and that is the useful part. Here is the detail, and what it changes depending on where you sit.

What the Bank actually did

The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%. The Bank Rate stayed at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Governing Council said the current policy rate remains appropriate to sustain the economic recovery and bring inflation back to the 2% target.

Because the policy rate did not move, lender prime did not move either. It has been sitting at 4.45%. If you hold a variable-rate mortgage, your rate and your payment are the same today as they were on July 14.

What the projections say

The July decision came with a Monetary Policy Report, which is where the Bank publishes its outlook. Two numbers matter for mortgage holders.

Growth. The Bank projects the economy expands 0.7% in 2026, then 1.8% in each of 2027 and 2028. A slow year followed by a steadier pair.

Inflation. CPI inflation is expected to ease gradually over the coming months and return to around 2% in early 2027, then average roughly 2% through 2027 and 2028.

The Bank was also clear that uncertainty remains high, pointing at oil prices tied to conflict in the Middle East and at US trade policy. It said it remains prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed.

If you have a variable-rate mortgage

Nothing changed on July 15. Your rate moves with prime, prime moves with the Bank of Canada, and neither moved.

What the projections suggest is a slower path than many people were hoping for. If your budget is tight while you wait for cuts that may or may not arrive, that is worth a conversation now rather than in six months. Converting to a fixed rate mid-term is possible with most lenders, and whether it makes sense depends on your remaining term and what you would be converting into.

If you are coming up for renewal

This is the group the decision matters least to and who act on it most. Your renewal is priced off the market when you renew, not off one announcement.

Start comparing three to four months before your maturity date. You can switch lenders at the end of your term with no prepayment penalty, and the offer in your renewal letter is rarely the best number available to you. Waiting for September 2 usually costs more in lost preparation time than it gains.

If you are buying

Get a rate hold. It protects you if pricing moves against you while you are shopping, and it costs nothing if pricing improves.

The one thing worth taking from the outlook is this: do not stretch your budget on the assumption that cuts are coming to rescue the payment. The projected path is gradual. Buy on the payment you can carry today.

What to watch next

The next scheduled interest rate announcement is September 2, 2026. It is a rate decision only, with no Monetary Policy Report attached. The next full report lands with the October 28 announcement, and that is usually where the outlook shifts if it is going to.

Between now and then, fixed rates can still move on their own. Fixed pricing follows bond yields rather than the Bank of Canada directly, which is why a fixed rate can change in a week when the Bank has not met at all.

What to do this month

• Renewing within the next year: start comparing now, do not wait for September 2.
• Holding a variable rate and feeling stretched: run the conversion numbers before the next decision, not after.
• Buying: get a rate hold and set your budget on today's payment.
• Considering breaking your mortgage: run the penalty math first. It is often the number that decides the answer.

If you want a plain read on where your mortgage sits after this decision, book a call with Emily. Fifteen to twenty minutes, your actual numbers.

General information for Ontario borrowers, not financial advice or a rate quote. Rate and policy figures are as published by the Bank of Canada for the July 15, 2026 decision. Mortgage options depend on your file, property, timing, lender criteria, and market conditions at the time of application.